Expert survey
15minerals surveyed
Ask the experts
Experts with knowledge of mineral pricing shared their views on prices and volumes.
Case Study · Market Forecasting
Forecasting the future of 15 minerals.
A global mining company wanted forecasts of pricing, market size and volumes for minerals of interest to 2035 and 2050. We combined expert input, market reports and price indices into a single model.
The Client
The client is a global mining company with interests across a broad range of minerals. It wanted to know which minerals to invest in over the coming decades.
The Challenge
Fifteen minerals.
Two horizons, one model.
Prescouter was asked to forecast pricing, market size and volumes for minerals of interest, with outlooks for 2035 and 2050, using its expert network to survey each market.
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Pricing
Future real prices
Estimate prices in 2035 and 2050.
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Volume
Market size and volume
Gauge growth for each mineral.
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Cost
Cost curve gradients
Estimate raw material price trends.
Our Approach
Building forecasts from experts and market data.
Market reports
CAGRgrowth rates collected
Gather the data
Analysts collected market reports for each mineral to capture attributes such as growth rates.
Price indices
2050forecast horizon
Project real prices
Consumer price and economic indices helped estimate real mineral prices in 2035 and 2050.
The Outcome
A model to guide future investments.
Prescouter built a market model with pricing, cost curve and volume forecasts for 15 minerals, from bulk commodities to specialty and precious materials. The outputs fed the client’s internal metals forecasting model and guided decisions on which minerals to invest in.
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Coverage
15 minerals
Pricing and volume forecasts for each.
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Horizon
2035 and 2050
Real price outlooks for two milestones.
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Impact
Investment priorities
Inputs for the client’s own forecasts.
Long term commodity bets rest on assumptions that are hard to test. Blending expert judgment with market data makes those assumptions explicit.
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